Windows Phone: Number 1 by 2015?

Previously, both IDC and Gartner predicted that Windows Phone would be the number two smart phone worldwide by 2015, solely thanks to Microsoft’s broad partnership with Nokia, which is giving up on its failing Symbian platform. Anyone with a shred of common sense noted the hilarity of these predictions and why they were deeply flawed. But heck, this is the Internet, folks, and when it comes to craziness there’s always someone out there willing to one-up you.

With that in mind, I present Pyramid Research’s quarterly smartphone forecast, called Smartphone Forecast Insight (registration required). And these guys make IDC and Gartner look positively conservative by comparison: They predict nothing less than a number one finish for Windows Phone by 2015.

Before anyone gets too excited, the report, such as it is, is pretty weak on details. For starters, it’s just one page long. And it doesn’t really offer any explanation for why these people feel so great about Windows Phone:

Android-based smartphones will continue to shake the smartphone world, with the projected share of Android smartphones reaching 28% in 2011 globally and taking over the leadership position from Symbian. However, we project that by 2015, Windows Phone will establish itself as the leader in the smartphone OS space.

What we do get is the following graphic:

phone_marketshare_2015

If I’m reading this right, the trajectories for Windows Phone and Symbian are simply mirror images of each other, so their assumption must simply be along the lines of what IDC and Gartner believe. More to the point, if this graphic is correct, Windows Phone will actually surpass Android by 2012/2013, not 2015.

Eh.

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18 Responses to Windows Phone: Number 1 by 2015?

  1. s80t699 says:

    I want to get paid to do that kind of research :-)

  2. rafyelzz says:

    Oh man, and I’m making a research of college about WP7, diagnosing it’s problems, the why and the because of its actual position, helped by IDC and Gartner reports, being optimistic but critic, and now this.

    I’m positive and optimistic but this is way too optimistic considering how Microsoft’s
    doing with updates.

  3. Info Dave says:

    I agree with you, Paul. Eh.

    Most likely, Nokia and WP7 will both continue to lose market share until Winokia can release a phone. Even then, they’ve got an uphill battle. The big Mo is not in their favor.

  4. roberthleeii says:

    hey according to the chart windows phone should pass ios this year :)

  5. Pingback: Yet another stupid report pegging Windows Phone as #1 by 2015 : WinExtra

  6. aaltayeb says:

    Eh.

  7. oslik says:

    And WP will surpass Symbian in Q4 / 2011. :-)

  8. I can’t even _get_ a WP7 phone on my network of choice (Verizon) yet. Even then, looks so far like there will be a choice of 1 phone. Bleh.

    • Paul Thurrott says:

      TechEd is next week. This would be a neat forum for Microsoft to announce availability on Verizon.

  9. wqwalter says:

    Anyone seen any definitive information on how well WP7 is doing now. Is the sales rate increasing stying flat or decreasing? Have any of the application sellers claimed 1,000,000 downloads of their application?

    I got a Focus from an AT&T store on the first day it was available. I went in at 10:00 thinking they would be sold out only to find that I was the first one to buy one. The day after Thanksgiving when they change the price form $199 to two for $199 I went back to try and get a second phone since it had only been three weeks since I got the first one. They gave me the second phone for no additional cost. I asked how they had been selling and the salesman indicated I had both WP7 phones they had sold from that store. I went ahead an got two more since I already had a family plan with 5 phones out of contract. I have been very satisfied with the 4 phones I have but I have only seen a very few other people with WP7 phones except at Microsoft events.

    Bill Walter

  10. banstyle says:

    lol it says WP7 will surpass iPhone in.. MID-2011!??!

    I guess we won’t have to wait long to see if that prediction is true.

  11. davidwbrooks says:

    Note also that the text “by 2015, Windows phone will establish itself as the leader” is illustrated in the chart by Android closing in on a narrow WinPho lead, on a pace to overtake it around 2017. Some meaning of “establish” I’m not familiar with?

  12. markps0966 says:

    I love these predictions no matter how unbelievable they are. The little engine that could perhaps? Optimism at its best. Still lovin’ my WP7 regardless of any prediction. :)

  13. oslik says:

    Everything is possible. Perhaps hackers will destroy iTunes and iPhone 5 antenna won’t work at all. :-)

    But seriously, Apple has one real weak spot – Steve’s health. His role in the company is more central than Bill’s role used to be in Microsoft. So we should expect the transition from Jobs to Cook to be more painful than the Gates -> Ballmer exercise.

  14. vhaakmat says:

    All they need to do is working closer with resellers (Expansys and the like). I love the 2 phones I have. And now with possible RIMs BBM and Skype integration, not to mention Nokia’s market infrastructure, Microsoft maybe onto something here. Balmer is a little nuts, I agree, but he’s also smart. Being pushed to extinction can do wonders to your brain… So let’s see what happens.

  15. pictokiwi says:

    I’m really still surprised how everyone is writing off Apple to basically cap their market share… maybe they might be happy with a maximum 18% market share this year (then decreasing from there) considering the high profit they make. But I really doubt it… where have the rumours of the iPhone nano gone?

    • gbroc435 says:

      Even if Apple wants more market share, I don’t think they have the right business model for it. Not with competition anyway. Android has proven what windows proved years ago that people like choice, and it doesn’t matter if it’s not the best as long as it’s good enough. Even with multiple form factors, Apple has the wrong business model for total market domination. I think they know that, and I don’t think they care. They seem to be doing fine with the one they’ve got.

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