Previously, both IDC and Gartner predicted that Windows Phone would be the number two smart phone worldwide by 2015, solely thanks to Microsoft’s broad partnership with Nokia, which is giving up on its failing Symbian platform. Anyone with a shred of common sense noted the hilarity of these predictions and why they were deeply flawed. But heck, this is the Internet, folks, and when it comes to craziness there’s always someone out there willing to one-up you.
With that in mind, I present Pyramid Research’s quarterly smartphone forecast, called Smartphone Forecast Insight (registration required). And these guys make IDC and Gartner look positively conservative by comparison: They predict nothing less than a number one finish for Windows Phone by 2015.
Before anyone gets too excited, the report, such as it is, is pretty weak on details. For starters, it’s just one page long. And it doesn’t really offer any explanation for why these people feel so great about Windows Phone:
Android-based smartphones will continue to shake the smartphone world, with the projected share of Android smartphones reaching 28% in 2011 globally and taking over the leadership position from Symbian. However, we project that by 2015, Windows Phone will establish itself as the leader in the smartphone OS space.
What we do get is the following graphic:
If I’m reading this right, the trajectories for Windows Phone and Symbian are simply mirror images of each other, so their assumption must simply be along the lines of what IDC and Gartner believe. More to the point, if this graphic is correct, Windows Phone will actually surpass Android by 2012/2013, not 2015.