Well, this is somewhat incredible.
The market researchers at IDC today revealed their expectations for smart phone market share (unit sale) changes between 2011 and 2015. And they expect Windows Phone, not the iPhone, to be the number two smart phone platform behind Google Android. The reason? Yep, you guessed it. Frank Stallone.
Actually it’s Nokia.
Worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features.
Smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.
Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010.
Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward … The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.
My news article on WinInfo will be up shortly. You know, if I can stop laughing long enough. :)
Update: Here you go.
cool thing, I’d really love to have access to those studies, I’m making a Market Research about WP7 role in smartphones market and this is light at the end of the tunnel.
As an owner of two Windows Phone 7 devices (one with build 7004, one with build 7008), I say, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
I just got gave up on waiting for Verizon to get the WP7 and switched to AT&T and got the Focus, it is great, so I am not surprised by this info. In fact a customer of mine who has had iPhone since the beginning is saying he is bored with it and played with a WP7 and loves it and is thinking of switching when his upgrade comes around
That would certainly be nice… We do know how aggressive Microsoft *can* be, lets just hope they start to *become* aggressive :-\
“Given Microsoft’s almost complete bungling of Windows Phone thus far” Really??? Hardly the case in my experience. I am usually prone to exaggeration, but that is way over the top IMHO based on my real life user experience with the Focus, and the same is true with other friends who have the Focus as well.
I mean no offense. But what you’re not privy to is my dealings with Windows Phone PR dating back to the February 2010 announcement. They stonewalled me during the entire book writing process, and that continues to this day, and I’ve been told that this wall of silence applies to all other press people too. So I’m glad you love the phone. I do too. And thanks for your opinion. But you have no idea what you’re talking about, sorry.
I may not know what I’m talking about when it comes to your professional/journalist dealings with MS/WP 7 and their stonewalling of you. No, in fact I absolutely don’t know what I’m talking about if that were the question. But Paul, look at my reply. I didn’t say a single thing about that. What I responded to was your statement of MS’s “almost complete bungling of Windows Phone 7 thus far.” And, I beg your pardon, but as a consumer/user of this product since the day it was released, I do have some idea of what I’m talking about. It appears from your reply that your personal animosity towards MS/WP7 over the way you’ve been treated (which as far as I am assuming is 100% valid) has perhaps prejudiced your view of the product entirely.
Right, you replied to what I wrote. I never said a particular phone wasn’t any good. I said that Windows Phone–the platform, the ecosystem, the whole thing–has been almost completely bungled by Microsoft. Which it has.
So again, glad you like your phone. I do too. But I see the promise of this platform and I expect more alacrity from a company that is getting killed in the marketplace. Sorry if that’s confusing. But they released the thing and then did absolutely nothing, all while their PR ignored repeated questions about specific topics and asking, begging for clarity.
So, yeah. Windows Phone. Winning. Got it.
I’ll be honest, if they have been stonewalling you because they have a massive surprise that will revolutionize the industry and they reveal it in the next 3-4 months, with dates that seem makable given by someone who actually makes dates like Sinopsky, then all will be forgiven. But if that isn’t the case, I’m selling off my Microsoft stock, because it’s pretty useless these days to me. And for them to stonewall someone who is essentially pretty good PR and marketing for their products, it would be clear they are 100 credits short of clueless. If I were a betting man, I’d be betting I’ll be selling off my MS stock.
I was told they treat all press the same. With silence.
Don’t worry Paul, I’m not so stupid that I find anything that you’ve written to be “confusing.” This isn’t nuclear physics we’re talking about. You could have written that “MS has bungled the PR/marketing wars by not being open and forthcoming…”. You could have written that “MS has bungled the update schedule and process, thereby undermining a central component of the WP7 concept…” or any number of other items to which you take MS to task for (and most of which would be *fact*, although not necessarily that important to my personal using experience). But, you wrote “Microsoft’s almost complete bungling of WP7 so far,” which, to me, had I not been a user, would imply that the phones suck, the OS sucks, they’re slow, they freeze, they don’t do what they’re intended to do, etc etc etc.. None of which is the case in my experience (but then again, maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about and you can relieve me of my confusion and tell me what my user experience has actually been ☺).
Actually, Windows Phones do need to be routinely rebooted, such as when Marketplace doesn’t launch correctly. But I was speaking generally, about Windows Phone. Not your phone. Thought that was obvious, sorry.
BTW did they ever offer you or anyone else a NDA?
I agreed to not discuss anything I learned for the book until the book came out, of course. Not sure about anyone else.
Note : I am no apple/android fanboy
Paul is absolutely correct is using the line “Given Microsoft’s almost complete bungling of Windows Phone thus far”. If you ask me he was polite, I would say they have fucked up the platform so far. Yes the entire ecosystem… the only saving facing for the platform so far is the early adopters and the devs who are churning out apps for the platform.
They haven’t done the marketing correctly – this is being No.1 aspect for any consumer product.
They haven’t been transparent – their PR sucks. All the senior management seems to imagine some virtual happy customer
And the most important they haven’t been able to design an efficient update delivery mechanism (not just technically but even in terms of policy agreements with IHVs and Carriers). Not that they don’t know how to, desktop WU is probably the mother of update delivery mechanisms for the software industry. They just fucked-up the WP7 update
And then coming to the fabulous UX from your “real” life experience with the focus (which exactly what I am using now)… here is a very short list of shortcomings from my user experience….
1. Copy & Paste – YES I need it… I used to paste stuff around emails, text to FB, share links with friends over text, FB, email… and stuff like that.
2. Custom ringtones – I was to use songs or any freaking sound I like as ringtones. 10 years back my Nokia 1100 was capable of doing it. WP7 is supposed to be a smartphone
3. I want one integrated Email/inbox to access all my email accounts like iPhone and Android
4. I want a better browser – yes IE is a bug (both desktop and this WP7)
5. When I search marketplace for an app I just want to see apps not albums and songs and other stuff
6. I want my Marketplace to not crash – yes it crashes on my Samsung Focus
7. I want my camera settings to not reset – this should be an option I should be able to configure. yes I use my phone to click photos of random things in my day to day life and share it with friends and family over text and FB
8. I want a turn by turn navigation – I had to buy a GPS for car after I switched from Android to WP7. It was my mistake that I did research enough and trusted MS to include this feature before I made the switch
9. I want multitasking of 3rd party apps – my last android phone was capable of doing it
10. I want internal phone search – I need it to find and launch a specific app from the sea of apps i installed. The vertical scroll of apps is not more sufficient
11. I want more support of landscape mode
12. I want the freaking notification bar on the top to not disappear/auto hide. If some dumb UX designer at MS thinks is cool… throw in a damn switch to keep it from auto hiding – this is freaking annoying
13. I want a decent YouTube application – Yes a real application not a stupid link
14. I want the Bing Maps updated – yes they are old. It shows a plain piece of land at my office address and Google maps shows the building. Or just work with Google and get the damn Google Maps onto the platform (which is impossible if you ask me so improve the Bing maps)
15. I want my apps to launch faster and resume faster
16. I want better battery performance – if my focus drains the juice at this rate without multitasking and stuff I am scared if it will do when they add it and more stuff in 2012 or 13 (for AT&T phones)
17. I want to be able multi select photos and send them as attachments to email or share them onto FB. Uploading or adding one photo at a time sucks when you want to add even as low as 5 photos – Yes I need it because I use it
18. I want more transparency in communication from MS and talk back more to the real customers not the imaginary figures inside Joe B or Ballmer’s balls
19. I want to know which of these they are going to fix and by WHEN
Agreed, this would be the case with any new platform (apple and android were even worse) but let me tell you MS/WP7 does not have the leverage to be lazy and slow and reset on the laurels…..live tiles. It actually pains to see MS fucking up the platform in multiple ways, success of WP7 is important for the consumer not just MS. It will keep the innovation engine running and prevent Apple and Google from being jerks which they are now.
Now this is only a small list from the regular consumer in me. I have a separate laundry list from the developer in me for the SDK.
Now on the other hand my wife who also uses a WP7 would probably not find the need for these in the last 4 months of our love with the platform, i often joke that she does not need a smartphone. Now if you and your friends don’t feel the need for these and other such things then….. guys save some money you probably don’t need a smart phone!!
Well, adityakirank, I guess its a matter of semantics. Many of the items on your laundry list simply do not happen on my Focus, or I don’t care if they do. Marketplace has never crashed on my Focus, not once. And I really don’t care that a Marketplace search on my Focus returns music, etc. things other than apps. Sure I’m only interested in apps, but everything is clearly identified and it takes me about a single millisecond to get to the app I want, so to me that’s a prime example of the kind of hyper criticism that I find rampant. My browser works perfectly fine-its fast as heck and easy to use and doesn’t crash/lock up. Do you identify a list of things I would like WP7 to have, and hope to see at some point? Definitely. Cut and paste (although getting the app “Forward Contacts” has relieved a lot of my stress about that), custom ringtones (yes, I miss all my Allman Brothers, Phish and Grateful Dead ringtones I made for all my Windows Mobile devices, very disappointing not to have Mountain Jam playing when my phone rings) I’ve never had the need for turn by turn navigation, but I would understand why users would want that, etc. And you didn’t even refer to the crappy bluetooth, which is my biggest issue.
But, I continue to believe that to write that MS has almost completely bungled WP7 with the initial release of the OS is a gross and unfair overstatement in my view. Did it launch with every single feature that every user would want? Of course not. But, my Focus works great, it’s fast, the phone reception is clear, it doesn’t lock or hang, its easy, I feel like I can do a million things with it and the apps, there are tons of apps only 4 months into the OS. Do I hope it improves, definitely. And I’ll be very disappointed if it doesn’t, and I am disappointed and embarrassed by MS’s bungling of the update process. But overall my experience is very positive, I recommend the OS to anyone who asks, and I believe this is nothing close to a “complete bungling.”
Maybe the update will be out by then. :P
someone had to say it…
I don’t doubt it could be #2, but what will #2 entail…5-6% market share. More importantly, where will the iPad and Android/Chrome OS tablets be by then, and will consumers still be buying PC’s.
Agreed on your “if I can stop laughing long enough” comment. I am hopeful for the Windows Phone platform, but unless something changes…one thing is for certain: Microsoft is serious about the “cloud”, and the Windows Phone is a great device for accessing the cloud.
Wow, number 2 huh? Maybe my Focus will have Nodo by then…
It’s starting to look like WP7 is the new kin. With MS only putting out 2 to 3 updates for WP7 and no real support by the mobile providers to approve the updates it is looking like WP7 is dead in the water. I think MS just put out WP7 as a placeholder for WP8 or whatever they are going to call Windows 8 on mobile devices. Nokia is not in a rush to put out a phone with WP7 since WP8 will probably have the enterprise functionality that is needed. Also Nokia will have time to add the functionality they want and need in order to get current Symbian users to select a Nokia Windows Phone over an iPhone or Andriod based phone.
Microsoft will get it right eventually. They’re just doing it at their own speed, slow. And heck, IDC could be right about WP, though this sounds fantastical to me, given what’s happening right now. Nokia as the great hope of the future. Who would’ve thunk it?
Maybe Nokia will light a fire under those guys too. You never know.
WP will get a lot of enterprise adoption if MS adds full functionality with active directory, Microsoft communication services , and gets Cisco and others to make VPN clients for it. The last company I worked for really wanted to stop paying for the Blackberry services since they can just use Exchange and just have to pay for a data plan. But no one liked windows mobile 6.5
I hope you are right Paul and Nokia lights a fire under MS because they will need to add functionality that Symbian phones already have and make them even better to entice Symbian users to stay with Nokia.
Nokia hasn’t been lighting to many fires with Symbian. All they do is lose market share every month despite having damn fine hardware to sell.
Of course they haven’t been “lighting any fires” with Symbian… It’s Symbian. Hopefully they can lead the way with Windows Phone 7, though.
Ah yes… Norm Macdonald on Weekend was the best.
Now mopping up my coffee from a classic spit take after reading this. I suppose in the parallel reality where MS is executing on WP7 flawlessly this could maybe happen. Maybe. But to get to number two they’d actually have to have comparable features and an update process. I guess in a world wide market, feature phone kind of way this could be possible…no, my head just can’t twist itself into the pretzel logic required for WP7 to overtake iPhone at this point. Would I like a WP7 world with updates and corporate features and apps and cool stuff and… and aw forget it :-).
Paul,
I realize it’s hard to predict anything with the Windows Phone team, but any word on that Verizon launch? I haven’t heard or seen any rumors about WP7 landing on verizon for a while. WP7 is going to need VZ to land #2.
Nothing specific, but based on all the email I get from Verizon store employees, it could be any time now.
IDC actually sells this information? They call themselves “The premier global market intelligence firm”. But this really amazing, I guess it’s based on the idea that multiple phones and carriers will flood the market until people just buy them because they are everywhere.
On the other hand a lot of Bond rating agencies were giving AAA ratings to mortgage backed securities well in to 2008.
Hey Paul, take a look at the chart Joe Wilcox has in an article he wrote on the same topic. The last column of number makes no sense, except it shows Winokia has 67% of the market. I think somebody made a mistake. Good thing you didn’t run with this.
Joe Wilcox at Betanews, but you knew that…
Wow, was I wrong. I misread the chart. Disregard all this, if possible.
you know we always compare wp7 launch to the iphone launch, but i was wondering whay it looks like compared to the launch of android. does anyone remeber the g1??? i don’t think that well great and i think android has recoverd from that….
People keep bringing up Android like this excuses Microsoft somehow. Let’s be clear here: Microsoft had different inspirations when designing and implementing Windows Phone. Do they go with the one that worked or the one that didn’t? And wouldn’t you cherry-pick the stuff that worked best on whatever platforms?
My point is, Apple got (and still gets) software updating right. That’s the model you copy. I don’t care how Android does it, right or wrong. Apple is the model here.
My Samsung Focus went nuts today. It continually flashed the SAMSUNG name on the screen every ~5 seconds. Pulled the battery, still nothing. Then I got a display prompting me to connect to my PC: I did and was greeted with error code C101002E, which meant there was no restore point (how do you initiate that in the first place) and that my phone could not be used in this state – duh!
I did the 3-finger manuever: vol.down + power + camera buttons and released the power button when the unit vibrated. I released all the buttons when the message appeared to format the phone…what a pain! It’s working…for now…but what a pain!
My wife thought I was getting an update when I was prompted to connect to the conmputer…she hasn’t a clue ;-\
Oh, yeah WP for your projected #2 spot :D
Knowing what you all know now, would you purchase a WP7 handset today? Hold off a few months? Wait until Mango? I’ve been following since the launch and probably would have bought then, but I was still under contract with Verizon. I wasn’t too worried about the missing features, I figured it would be updated a few times before January when my contract was up. January came and went with no updates so I decided to wait a while longer and stick my Omnia (6.1) until the first update hit. I’m now three months out of contract and I’m not sure if I would get the Trophy if it came out tomorrow. I feel like Verizon has done me a favor by not releasing it in March. Yes I know the Trophy will come with NoDo already installed, but to be honest ‘copy and paste’ doesn’t come into play daily for me. I can swing a one year contract which might put me in the sweet spot for the Nokia releases, but I’m not sure the cool UI & apps are worth being stuck with 2010 hardware for that time.
I’ll wait next time around. This was the first time I PAID dearly to be an early adopter: Never again.
It’s curious that IDC sees Nokia as WP7′s salvation even though Nokia has enough internal dysfunction of it’s own to make MS look like [insert name of well-run company].
Somebody at IDC believes that HIPPO + HIPPO = CHEETAH
Looking back four years from now…
IDC says Windows Mobile will be number one, with a market share of ~30%, Blackberry at second place with ~14% (which is actually fairly accurate).
iPhone and Android came and made a fool of whoever wrote that prediction.
The point is, there’s no way you can predict the future four years ahead the way technology is changing today and just by trying you will show that you don’t understand what you are talking about.
That’s for sure.
Of course, which demonstrates how quickly the market can change. So many people in the tech industry think Windows Phone is too late, even though a few months ago only 20% of cell phone owners even had smart phones… That means there is still 80% of cell phone owners who could switch to a smart phone, and possibly Windows Phone.
Not only that, there are still millions of people who do not have a phone *period*… Why do people think it is too late? Are they that ignorant and/or arrogant?
Anyways, of course those IDC predictions didn’t come true, but as we all know predictions are based upon trends, trends and information of the current time, if new things are introduced, the whole thing can change. They are just saying “so long as nothing major occurs, this is likely what will happen.” It is like weather here in Oregon, you can’t predict it! One second it will be sunny, the very next it will be cloudy and pouring down rain, then it will snow, then it will stop, and then it will get sunny and warm ;-)
Hey! Great things can happen. Today is wednesday so why not… why not today. Last night I received my 7.0.7008.0 update via T-Mobile… Maybe Microsoft (and wireless carriers) are moving forward.
On the flipside, April Fools is right around the corner as well. :)
This guys should stop doing all this non sense prediction,wp7 is aiming Android for the no1 spot, no one single device out there can beat apple…. None none none…..they can do all the dual core,3d,4g most people don’t care about that…they want the one and only iphone……
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